Challenges & Material Risks

September 2026

12 September 2026

El Niño on the Berry and Hass Hectare: Peru’s High-Value Fruit Must Keep Water Observation at Origin

Proarándanos cut the 2026/27 blueberry export curve to roughly 382,000 tonnes as El Niño hit mid- and late-season productivity. ProHass reports heat-driven size loss and fruit drop on Hass avocado in the same climate year. Stewardship is whether irrigation, plot and quality files stay with Peruvian producers — or travel only as offtaker assurance.

12 September 2026

Challenges & Material Risks Cooperatives

Third Drought in Five Years: UK Horticulture Needs Reservoirs and Soil Files, Not Regen Theatre

August’s £65m drought package puts up to £15m behind on-farm reservoirs for irrigation while Barclays’ farm survey shows drought already hitting three-quarters of climate-affected growers. Soft fruit, salad and carrot hectares need regenerative water retention — and observation that stays with the farm, not the offtaker brand.

United Kingdom Horticulture Drought Irrigation

11 September 2026

Challenges & Material Risks Exporters

Geolocation Without Tenure: Why Indonesian Smallholders Are the EUDR Exclusion Risk

Jakarta has already said smallholders cannot monitor Union sanctions in real time. ASEAN tenure gaps will decide who remains in EU palm, rubber and coffee offtake — and leakage studies warn that exclusion does not halt forest conversion.

EUDR Indonesia Smallholders Plot geolocation

11 September 2026

Challenges & Material Risks Cooperatives

Who Pays for the Seal: Kenya Tea, Certification Cost and the Grower Who Absorbs It

In May 2025 Nairobi suspended Rainforest Alliance tea audits because factories and farmers were carrying the bill. The UK takes only about eight percent of Kenya’s tea exports. EU and UK buyer due diligence still expects a file — the question is who finances it.

Kenya Tea Smallholders Supply-chain risk

9 September 2026

Challenges & Material Risks Exporters

The Binary Forest Problem: Why EUDR Map-Based Compliance Misreads Agroforestry

West African cocoa already faces drought and rainfall extremes that threaten yields. The EUDR maps that will police those same landscapes cannot tell shade-grown agroforestry from the forest beside it — and Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire have already shown the plot-level alternative.

EUDR Agroforestry Remote sensing Smallholders